I Called It First

The Coming Jobs Explosion

2010-04-13T19:45:00.001-07:00

While the unemployment rate remains well north of nine percent – a very troubling stat indeed – there is hope on the horizon. The view from New York (at least from my seat) is that there is a huge pent up demand for new and more qualified employees and that in the second half of 2010 there will literally be a jobs explosion for qualified candidates. Service companies are hungry for those who can help them build market share in good times and bad and corporations are looking to upgrade their talent to take advantage of the coming (if still yet unofficial) recovery. And, here's the potential interesting rub, as we've seen in markets in Europe for years, economic growth can continue and jobs can come in waves without greatly reducing the overall unemployment rate. It will be interesting to see if we get back to our historical unemployment numbers of if this is an entirely new way of doing business. Vive la revolution!

Shake No More?

2009-11-11T09:50:00.001-08:00

I'm already seeing the signs of the end of the handshake as we know it. I received my fist bumps in Portland last week and even on the train in CT today, a good friend opted for a wave versus shaking hands -- all of this of course due to the fear of H1N1. Sociologists I'm sure are already having a field day looking at how these greeting behaviors are already changing. I predict, particularly among Gen Y and beyond, the handshake will slowly fade as it is for women who rarely shake hands. Who knows, maybe we'll see a return to the salute or the bow as in Japan. For me, I'll keep shaking hands and keep my Purell at the ready.

Sleeping Beauty

2009-09-14T13:19:00.001-07:00

The Killer App of the next decade will be sleep. Time after time, people complain they don't sleep well due to stress or other factors (like a new baby?) And, due to the obesity epidemic, I can only imagine snoring is at an all time high (it seems so based on online advertising.) So, what is the silver bullet? The pharma company that can come up with a genuine sleep substitute will have the ultimate market cap. Imagine feeling a little run down and taking a pill (legally!) to literally add the feeling and benefit of two hours of sleep. Sounds crazy but I can imagine countless firms are already working on something similar deep in the molecule chasing labs!

The Eyes Have It

2009-09-14T08:15:00.001-07:00

Given the rapid influx of information coming to us 24/7 and on increasingly smaller screens, I predict that there will be a massive increase in the number of people wearing corrective eyewear (glasses and contacts.) So, the smart ones will invest in companies that make optics and contact lenses. After all, while Moore's law says we'll be able to pack an increasing amount of information on smaller chips every two years – our eyes simply haven't kept up.

"That rate, since the invention of the integrated circuit in 1958, doubles the number of transistors that can be placed inexpensively on an integrated circuit, approximately every two years." Gordon Moore.

The Coming Small Business Revolution

2009-08-16T12:19:00.000-07:00

If this recession taught us anything, it is that layoffs suck and that doing anything you can to control your own destiny means everything. Be it power networking, monetizing your value or asking for a promotion, those who control their destiny seem to be coming out ahead in this mess. One observation is that as the economy recovers, all that pent up energy may come out in a new wave of small businesses. And, given that our banking community still can't get it together, these small business will likely be funded by "angel" investors - likely mom and dad. This will at least give people the ability to decide if they lay themselves off. Think of it as a Pink Slip Revoluation.

Micro-Licensing

2008-07-29T10:45:00.001-07:00

All right, I'm going on record to coin a new phrase - "micro-licensing." Given the rise in social networking and the personalization of the Internet, traditional licensing for non-profits may be outdated. A new craze may well take hold: micro-licensing where non-profits and potentially brands literally provide use of their logos for fundraising and other needs. Imagine for a moment the famed (RED) campaign appearing for one month at your local pizza parlor. Or, consider a one-day promotion with your local gas station where proceeds go to the American Cancer Society. This "pop up" social marketing, could be an excellent way to keep non-profits and other organizations raising money through our current recession and beyond (see link.) In my view, micro-licensing could be a great alternative to cumbersome multi-year agreements between non-profits and brands and could help take advantage of our desire to do good...without too much of a commitment.

Crowdsourcing

2008-06-22T06:34:00.000-07:00

As a follow up to my earlier posts on the changing face of advertising, I believe the phenomena of group creativity is finally coming of age. See Wikipedia . While the big brains on Madison Avenue will certainly disagree, I think there is going to be enormous power in the concept of having the target audience a company is trying to reach, actually help that company market to them. And, with the wide variety of collaboration tools that started with Documentum's erooms, this is now a level playing field for everyone. As Thomas Friedman says, if you have an idea and don't take advantage of it someone else will - be they in Shanghai or San Francisco. So, watch out for more of this emerging trend.

The Return of Greenspan...Almost

2008-03-26T09:37:00.000-07:00

In my ealier post I predict that the new president will reinstate the Maestro. Today's news stories may be a first step in that direction...

Clinton proposes Greenspan lead foreclosure group
Mon Mar 24, 2008 9:29am EDT

WHITE PLAINS, New York (Reuters) - Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan and other economic experts should determine whether the U.S. government needs to buy up homes to stem the country's housing crisis, Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton will propose on Monday.

Clinton, a presidential candidate and senator from New York, said the Federal Housing Administration should "stand ready" to buy, restructure and resell failed mortgages to strengthen the ailing U.S. economy.

"Just as it has in the past, this kind of temporary measure by the government could give our economy the boost it needs and families the help they need," Clinton will say, according to excerpts of remarks prepared for a speech in Philadelphia.

"It would not require a single new government bureaucracy, and would be designed to be self-financing over time -- so it would cost taxpayers nothing in the long run."

Clinton threw her weight behind legislation proposed by Democrats Rep. Barney Frank of Massachusetts and Senator Chris Dodd of Connecticut that would "expand the government's capacity to stand behind mortgages that are reworked on affordable terms."

But she said a bipartisan group should determine whether that approach was sufficient or whether the U.S. government should step in as a temporary purchaser.

The working group could be led by bipartisan economic heavyweights such as Republican Greenspan, Democratic former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker and Robert Rubin, the treasury secretary under President Bill Clinton.

Under the Frank plan, the government would take failing mortgages off the hands of investors and write new terms that would prevent foreclosure. It would see lenders write down the mortgage amount in exchange for a government guarantee.

The Return of Greenspan

2008-01-19T11:06:00.001-08:00

I'm going on record that man or woman, Democrat or Republican, our next president is going to coax Alan Greenspan out of retirement for a two-year assignment as chief of the Central Bank. Far fetched? Crazy? Maybe, but with the way the economy is going and with the relative failure of Bernanke, I can't see how the new president wouldn't bring back the Maestro. Besides, the speaking circuit is going to get pretty boring at some point and my guess is he is missing the fun.

More on Consumer Generated Marketing

2007-12-21T06:29:00.000-08:00

In support of my last post, check out P&G's new effort to get consumers involved in the marketing of Pringles in the UK.

Consumer Generated Marketing

2007-12-14T12:37:00.000-08:00

Ok, an idea I had thought of some time ago is finally coming to the mainstream, consumer as marketer. We've known for years that consumers - through focus groups - have helped marketers better understand how people use their products and how to make them better. This has recently been pushed harder to a trend I see coming full-speed ahead - consumer generated marketing. I'm calling it.

Beginning Jan 1, 2008, a new site www.bootb.com is launching. The idea is simple, companies post their marketing briefs and assign a budget, Consumers then compete to develop campaigns to help solve the problem. The winners get 90% of the budget. Some samples on the site today include a new Disney project.

This is just the beginning.

Ageism On Steroids

2007-11-18T11:49:00.000-08:00

Ok, get this, many people in the corporate communications world are so obsessed with the new digital divide (under 30 vs. over) that there are rumours about that no CEO wants a head of communications over that magical age. What I would like to call is a new ageism that apparenetly is real. Does this mean if you are over 30, you are cooked? I hope not but it does catch your eye. The one falacy with all of it of course is that age by itself is not a competitive advantage. Age by itself is not a differentiator. I went to a conference this month where the organizers had a recent college graduate stand up and introduce himself as a "digital native." He then lamented that all of the digital work in his agency was falling to him and his underlying message was he didn't know what he was doing.

I'd like to call two things: first, that age alone cannot carry the day. And secondly, that the smart ones will leap on board this digital train and keep honing their skillset while levergaing the assets of the their experience.

The Human Touch

2007-11-18T11:17:00.000-08:00

I'm noticing a trend that I would like to call: the rash of social networking and life in the e-world, and the possible outcomes.

Given that literally everyone under 30 has a blog (Facebook is really a blog after all), I'm seeing that it is easier than ever before for people to voice their opinions. (Obvious.) Just look at Comcast Must Die and other consumer compliant sites, and you will see a new froth and range of consumers who feel they have been wronged. It is simple to complain or give priase (allright, mostly complain.) What is really interesting, however, is that while it is simple to complain online, it is much harder to have the guts to face conflict in the workplace or at home. In other words, many of those who are bold online would rather NOT send a poorly cooked meal back or not step up to a bully. And, with all these secret e-lives in motion, I believe there will eventually be a backlash and the next generation, while easily using technology, won't be so obsessed with it. Think about the major ups and downs of trends this century. The 20's gave Americans wealth until the end of the decade, the 30s despair, the 40s war, the 50s gave us an ideal and more war, the 60s Vietnam and the 70s free love. The 80s was a retun to family values, the 90s brought us GenX and a reworking of thinking about the corporate ladder and the 2000's a kind of funky complilation of all of it. So, look out for a return to the power of the human touch where those who can balance the e-world and the real world will thirive.

Mobile Solar

2007-10-08T06:17:00.000-07:00

I'm calling it. Look out for solar panels mounted on the top of trucks and big rigs around the country. It is almost a no brainer. The only challenge is what will the power charge? This is also a natural for the Prius and other already hybrid cars. Let's give early kudos to UNLV for their solar golf cart and use it as a signal that we are wasting miles and miles of truck tops that can be generating free, clean energy!

India as the Next Madison Avenue?

2007-08-28T10:55:00.001-07:00

Forget call centers, I'm envisioning full-fledged marketing and communications hubs in India. Levnovo was the forerunner opening a marketing services hub there in July. Imagine if PR firms, for example, were to start similar ventures where creative directors, media specialists and writers in India supported on the ground teams in the US, Europe and other markets. One of the biggest challenges in the public relations industry today is the quality of writing. India has a well-qualifed English-language workforce and could be critical to the process of improving client service. So, I am calling it here, creative hubs will start popping up in key markets in India and smart public relations firms will benefit.

Rent a CMO

2007-08-27T07:13:00.000-07:00

Today's CMO has an average tenure of no more than 18 months! Some firms churn and burn CMOs like other people use paper towel. One trend I've spotted and would like to call first is the outsourced CMO. No, this time it isn't going to happen in India, but rather on Madison Avenue. Look at companies like one consumer electronics firm basedin California and you see the outsourced CMO. This company has decided not to hire a full-time CMO and rather consults with a former CMO based in New York. And, I would like to go one step farther and call the rise of CMO teams. These will be two or three former CMOs joining togehter to counsel clients. This trend will be a win-win for the company and for the CMOs who will begin to shift the balance of power.

For more on the topic, check out Seth Godin's blog.